INVEST 98

The other area of interest is in the eastern Caribbean. Convection with this feature has been persistent since Sunday.

An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this area Monday afternoon, if necessary.

There is the potential for this to become Tropical Depression 15. The next name on the list -- should it get that far -- would be Omar.

Regardless of this system's classification, expect locally heavy rain to impact Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and portions of the Leeward Islands through today.

 

TD 15
Tropical Depression 15 is located southwest of Puerto Rico and the impressive area of convection with it has continued overnight.

Despite experiencing some northwesterly shear, the forecast is for this cyclone to develop and become Tropical Storm Omar later today.

Tropical storm watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, as well as the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic.

Flooding may result from the heavy rain that is expected in these islands over the next couple of days as the cyclone gradually moves to the northeast.

Omar has become stronger and now has top winds near 75 mph. The storm was located about 315 miles SSW of San Juan, Puerto Rico as of 11 p.m. EDT.

A hurricane warnings and watches and tropical storm warnings and watches have been posted for parts of Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, the British Virgin islands and the islands of Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy are also under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning.

The center of Omar, most likely as a category 1 or 2 hurricane , is expected to pass near or just east of, the Virgin Islands early on Thursday.

Conditions are expected to deteriorate as Omar approaches. In the meantime, very heavy rain will threaten flooding and mudslides in the Netherlands Antilles and extreme northern Venezuela.

 

Omar strengthened to a hurricane overnight, and continues moving northeast toward the northeastern Caribbean this morning. As of 5 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Omar was located 285 miles south-southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and was moving northeast at near 7 mph.

Maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph near the center, making this a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is possible as Omar continues on a northeast track through tonight.

Local governments have posted hurricane watches and warnings as well as tropical storm watches and warnings for the islands in the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, as outer bands begin to impact the area. On the current forecast track, Omar should pass just east of Puerto Rico tonight into early Thursday.

 

Omar has rapidly weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 85-mph winds and continues to rapidly race northeastward, away from the northern Leeward Islands.

Trailing bands of heavy rain with gusty winds linger over the northern half of the Lesser Antilles but will gradually diminish over the remainder of the day.

Some reported wind gusts include: 50 mph at St. Thomas, 62 mph at St. Croix, and 70 mph at St. Maarten. As much as 5.69 inches of rain was also recorded at St. Croix.

While these winds and rain are not extreme, keep in mind the center of the hurricane, with the most severe weather, passed between the main islands. 

Omar is a Tropical Storm (70 mph) and continues race northeastward at 35 mph, well away from the northern Leeward Islands and well southeast of Bermuda. It is only a threat to the open sea mariner at this point going forward.

Some reported wind gusts from the Omar included: 50 mph at St. Thomas, 62 mph at St. Croix, and 70 mph at St. Maarten. As much as 5.69 inches of rain was also recorded at St. Croix. While these winds and rain are not extreme, keep in mind the center of the hurricane, with the most severe weather, passed between the main islands sparring them from the worst of Omar.
 

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