Somehow I missed Fay when it formed... didn't notice until Sunday afternoon.

 

Tropical Storm Fay (50 mph) is spinning slowly NW along the south coast of Cuba and is forecast to turn northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and slowly move northward offshore from the west coast of Florida during the first half of the week, possibly strengthening into a hurricane. The forecast track and forecast intensity still involve a large amount of uncertainty, so stay tuned.

For now, the primary threat from the storm is heavy rain. Western and central Cuba still faces flash flooding. Isolated rainfall totals in excess of 10 inches are possible.

The forecast track of Fay brings the storm over western Cuba through Monday afternoon and into the Florida Keys late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for the Florida Keys, Cayman Brac, Little Cayman, and the western two-thirds of Cuba.

Tropical storm watches are still posted for the southeast coast of Florida from north of Ocean Reef to Jupiter Inlet, Lake Okeechobee, and Grand Cayman Island.

A hurricane watch is in effect along the west coast of Florida northward to Tarpon Springs, north of Tampa. Hurricane watches remain in effect for a good chunk of the Cuban coast (both north and south) and the Florida Keys.

Eventually, past midweek, Fay could continue northward into the Southeast with rain for at least a part of the drought area.

KEY WEST, Fla. — Florida Keys officials closed schools, opened shelters and urged visitors to leave as Tropical Storm Fay threatened to strengthen into a hurricane Sunday, but residents and some tourists seemed in no hurry to evacuate.

Traffic leaving Key West and the Lower Keys on Sunday afternoon was light but steady as the sky darkened with storm clouds and the National Weather Service issued watches and warnings.

"We've seen worse than this in Omaha," said Diego Sainz, who was visiting from Nebraska with his wife and friends. They had intended to leave Sunday but couldn't get a flight out.

Authorities said traffic was heavier in the Upper Keys, where the 110-mile, mostly two-lane highway that runs through the island chain meets the mainland. The Florida Highway Patrol sent in extra troopers to assist and tolls were suspended on parts of the northbound turnpike.

Fay could start pelting parts of the Keys and South Florida late Monday or early Tuesday as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. Aside from wind damage, most of the islands sit at sea level and could face some limited flooding from Fay's storm surge.

Officials in the Keys and elsewhere planned to open shelters and encouraged or ordered people who live in low-lying areas and on boats to evacuate. Schools in the Keys will be closed Monday and Tuesday.

Keys officials earlier Sunday had issued a mandatory evacuation order for visitors and asked those who had not yet arrived to postpone their trips. Officials said hotels and businesses won't be forced to remove visitors, but they should use common sense.

Fay, the sixth storm of the 2008 Atlantic season, was expected to strengthen to a hurricane by the time its center crossed Cuba and begin approaching the Keys. Fay has already killed at least five people after battering Haiti and the Dominican Republic with weekend torrential rains and floods.

At 11 p.m. EDT, the storm's center was located about 235 miles south-southeast of Key West and was moving northwest about 10 mph. Maximum sustained wind speeds were near 50 mph.

Forecasters expected the storm to begin moving to the north in the next day or two. Current models show the storm moving north along the western coast of Florida, although forecasters still didn't know exactly where it would make landfall.

Some Key West businesses began putting up hurricane shutters Sunday, but tourists and residents still strolled lazily through town, where the weather alternated from sunny to occasional downpours with light wind gusts.

Sainz and friend Ron Norgard, also of Omaha, sat outside the La Concha Hotel in Key West on rocking chairs, smoking cigarettes and waiting for their wives to return from shopping.

Sainz joked he was going to charge Florida Gov. Charlie Crist for the extra money his wife was spending because they couldn't leave.

"Somebody's gotta pay," he quipped.

Crist declared a state of emergency Saturday as an emergency operations center opened in Tallahassee. He urged Floridians "to remain calm, remain vigilant" and said 9,000 Florida National Guard troops were available, but only 500 were on active duty Sunday.

Maria Perez, 50, of Key West, prayed at a town shrine known as The Grotto, where an etching on a stone reads, "As long as the Grotto stands, Key West will never again experience the full brunt of a hurricane." It was built in 1922 by nuns outside a Roman Catholic church, three years after a catastrophic storm. So far, the 86-year-old invocation has worked.

"I pray not to have the storm," Perez said. "I am not afraid."

A hurricane watch was in effect for most of the Keys and along Florida's west coast to Tarpon Springs. A tropical storm watch was also in effect for the southeast coast of Florida from Ocean Reef north to Jupiter Inlet.

Forecasters said rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches were possible for the Florida Keys and South Florida.

In the Tampa Bay area, residents bought plywood, water, extra batteries, generators, and candles. Home Depot Manager Tony Quillen said his Pinellas Park store sold out of water by 9 a.m., two hours after opening, but he expected another supply in the afternoon.

"People are playing in their head, considering what happened the last time," Quillen said, referring to hurricanes including Charley in 2004, a Category 4 storm.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain was briefed on the storm by emergency officials after flying into Orlando for campaign events. A Monday fundraiser in Miami was canceled as a precaution.

Key West was last seriously affected by a hurricane in 2005, when Category 3 Wilma sped past. The town escaped widespread wind damage, but a storm surge flooded hundreds of homes and some businesses. The deadliest storm to hit the island was a Category 4 hurricane in 1919 that killed up to 900 people, many of them offshore on ships that sank.

The Category 5 Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 passed over the middle Keys, killing more than 400 people, more than half of them World War I veterans living in rehabilitation camps.

Tropical Storm Fay is in the process of crossing Cuba, and is heading towards the Southeastern United States.

As of 5 am EDT, Fay was located about 155 miles south-southeast from Key West, Florida, with maximum sustained winds near 50 miles per hour. Fay is moving to the north-northwest near12 miles per hour.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for part of Florida's East Coast from Jupiter Inlet north to Sebastian Inlet, the northwestern Bahamas, and Grand Cayman Island. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for much of Cuba (the provinces from Camaguey westward) and the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, Florida's East Coast from Jupiter Inlet southward (including metro Miami), Florida's West Coast from Bonita Beach southward, and Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours.

A hurricane watch is in effect for the Florida Keys (including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay), mainland Florida from Card Sound Bridge westward to Tarpon Springs (including the metro Tampa area), and in Cuba from the provinces of La Habana and Ciudad de la Habana east to Sancti Spiritus. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours.

Fay is forecast to move through Florida over the next few days and eventually bring heavy rain and wind to the Carolinas by mid to late week. Residents along Florida's West Coast should be prepared for tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions within the next day or two, and be prepared to evacuate if local officials recommend it. Residents all across the Florida Peninsula should be for gusty winds and heavy rain through midweek, regardless of where Fay makes landfall. Residents along the Georgia, South Carolina, and southeastern North Carolina Coasts should also pay close attention to Fay's progress this week.

 

After making its first U.S. landfall Monday afternoon over Key West, Florida; Tropical Storm Fay made its second landfall near Cape Romano, Florida on Tuesday morning at about 4:45am ET.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and the majority of Florida's Atlantic coast. All hurricane warnings have been discontinued.

As of 5 am EDT, Tropical Storm made landfall about 55 miles south of Ft. Myers, Florida near Cape Romano. Fay is moving to the north-northeast at 9 mph. This northward motion is expected to continue throughout the majority of the day as Fay crosses the Florida peninsula. View Fay's projected path.

Parts of the Florida Keys have experienced tropical storm conditions during much of the day on Monday though conditions should gradually improve during the morning hours. The conditions that the Florida Keys experienced on Monday is what coastal southwest Florida can expect this morning and continue into the midday hours.

The greatest impact from Fay, however, has been the heavy rain. Fay is forecast to produce rain totals of 4 to 8 inches with some locations picking up close to 10 inches throughout South Florida. Here is the latest rainfall forecast. Eventually, as Fay moves north across the state, a greater portion of the Florida peninsula will deal with the heavy, maybe even flooding, rain.

As Fay rotates northward, it is also possible for isolated tornadoes to impact central and south Florida.

Radar from South Florida shows Fay continues to produce moderate to heavy rainfall across the southern half of the state. Here is a look at the rainfall that has occurred over the past 24 hours; take note of the estimated 4-8 inches that has already fallen across south Florida.

Although Fay's central pressure continued to fall Monday night into Tuesday morning, the winds never responded to the lowering pressure and hurricane status was never reach before landfall.

The extended future of Tropical Storm Fay is somewhat uncertain with computer models suggesting Fay may stall off the northeast Florida Atlantic coast before making another landfall somewhere along the Southeast U.S. coast later on this week.
 

After making its first U.S. landfall Monday afternoon over Key West, Florida; Tropical Storm Fay made its second landfall near Cape Romano, Florida on Tuesday morning around 4:45am ET.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the central Atlantic coast of Florida and Lake Okeechobee. Meanwhile, in preparation for a stalled out tropical system off the northeast Florida coast, a hurricane watch has been posted from Flagler Beach, Florida northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

As of 11 pm ET, Tropical Storm Fay is located about 30 miles south-southwest of Melbourne, Florida. Fay is moving to the north-northeast at just 5 mph. A gradual turn to the north is expected overnight Tuesday night or Wednesday. View Fay's projected path.

Fay, even though over land, Fay held up quite well with a well-defined depiction on radar throughout the day on Tuesday. However, during Tuesday evening, Fay began to lose some of its organization and wind speeds began to decrease. Fay's central pressure has risen to 990 millibars (29.23 inches), and winds have decreased to 50 mph. The tropical storm reached its peak intensity and overall best organization over land during the early afternoon hours of Tuesday.

At this time, Fay is battering the east-central portion of the state of Florida. This portion of the state will continue to experience squally weather with very heavy, flooding tropical downpours accompanied with some minor-to-moderate wind damage. Watch the latest tropical update.

Though wind gusts have topped 60 to to nearly 80 mph at times in some local spots and a few isolated tornadoes have caused localized destruction, the greatest impact from Fay has been and will be the heavy rain. Spiraling bands from Fay have persistently rotated onshore along the central Atlantic coast of Florida and totals have climbed towards 10 inches. Overall, rain totals across central and south Florida will range from 5 to 10 inches although some locations may approach 15 inches of rain. Flood watches and warnings are posted for the majority of the Florida peninsula.

Radar shows Fay continues to produce moderate to heavy rainfall across central Florida. Here is a look at the rainfall that has occurred over the past 24 hours.

As Fay's spiraling bands rotate onshore, it is possible for isolated tornadoes to impact the Atlantic coast of central Florida. Several tornadoes have been reported during Tuesday afternoon with a few producing moderate to major damage and/or destruction.

The extended future of Tropical Storm Fay is somewhat uncertain. The current forecast is for it to become a category 1 hurricane on Wednesday. After reaching the Atlantic, Fay should wander slowly just off the northeast Florida coast, perhaps for a couple of days, before making another landfall somewhere along the Florida or Georgia coast and then push into northern Florida or southern Georgia. Another possibility has Fay sliding moving back towards the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Either way, there is a good possibility that Fay may become a major flooding threat. 

After making its first U.S. landfall Monday afternoon over Key West, Florida; Tropical Storm Fay made its second landfall near Cape Romano, Florida on Tuesday morning around 4:45am ET.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the central Atlantic coast of Florida and the southern Georgia Coast. Meanwhile, in preparation for a stalled out tropical system off the northeast Florida coast, a hurricane watch has been posted from Flagler Beach, Florida northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

As of 8 am ET, Tropical Storm Fay is located near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fay is drifting northward at just 5 mph. This motion is expected to continue today, allowing the center to move back over the Atlantic Ocean. A turn to the northwest expected tonight or Thursday with a potential third Florida landfall between Daytona Beach and St. Augustine. View Fay's projected path.

Top winds have decreased to 45 mph, mainly over the Atlantic Ocean well east of the center of circulation. Some strengthening is expected as Fay moves over the Atlantic just east of the Florida coast later today and tonight.

At this time, Fay is battering the east-central portion of the state of Florida. This portion of the state will continue to experience squally weather with very heavy, flooding tropical downpours accompanied with some minor-to-moderate wind damage. Watch the latest tropical update.

Though wind gusts have topped 60 to to nearly 80 mph at times in some local spots and a few isolated tornadoes have caused localized destruction, the greatest impact from Fay has been and will be the heavy rain. Spiraling bands from Fay have persistently rotated onshore along the central Atlantic coast of Florida and totals have climbed towards 10 inches. Overall, rain totals across central and south Florida will range from 5 to 10 inches although some locations may approach 15 inches of rain. Flood watches and warnings are posted for the majority of the Florida peninsula.

Radar shows Fay continues to produce moderate to heavy rainfall across central Florida. Here is a look at the rainfall that has occurred over the past 24 hours.

The tornado risk from Fay has lessened today with the center moving back out over the water. The most favored area of the storm for tornadic activity is the northeast quadrant of the system. In this case that quadrant of Fay should remain over the water throughout today and tonight. The tornado threat increases Thursday across northeast Florida as Fay moves back toward land.

The computer models agree that the storm will go back over land fairly quickly

The extended future of Tropical Storm Fay is somewhat uncertain. After reaching the Atlantic, Fay may wander just off the northeast Florida coast before making another landfall somewhere along the northeast Florida coast (if it can manage to move off the coast) and then push into northern Florida or southern Georgia. Another possibility has Fay sliding moving back towards the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Either way, there is a good possibility that Fay may become a major flooding threat. 

As of 11 pm EDT the center of Tropical Storm Fay was 35 miles SE of Daytona Beach, Fla. The system remains stalled, but should begin a slow drift in a westerly direction through the overnight.

Top winds in Fay are near 60 mph, mainly over the Atlantic Ocean in thunderstorms east of the center. The strongest gusts on land have been in the 25 to 45 mph range this afternoon and evening.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the central Atlantic coast of Florida and the southern Georgia Coast.

Later tonight or Thursday high pressure to the north of Fay should turn the system to the northwest and then west-northwest while making landfall along the northeastern Florida coastline. This would be the third U.S. landfall.

Wind gusts over 40 mph are likely along the northeastern coast of Florida. Inland winds will be mostly 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts the next 24 hours.

The main threat from Fay continues to be the torrential downpours. Locations on Florida's eastern coast from Cocoa Beach to Melbourne to Fort Pierce have picked up 8 to 18 inches of rain already. In fact, a report of over 24" of rain has been received near the Melbourne, Fla. area. Numerous reports of flooding have been received in the Melbourne area as well.

From northeastern Florida, Fay should move off to the west toward the Florida Panhandle or possibly move into the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico Friday. Even if Fay emerged into the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico, little reorganization would be expected. View Fay's projected path.

As Fay moves along this path heavy rain is likely across northern Florida and extreme southern Georgia through Friday as Fay moves by. Locations in the threat area for heavy rain include Gainesville, Ocala, Jacksonville, and Tallahassee.Flood watches and warnings are posted for portions of the Florida peninsula and parts of southern Georgia.

Waves along the northeast Florida coast will rise to as high as 12 feet the next 12 to 18 hours. High surf will extend to coastal South Carolina where waves could reach 6 to 8 feet.

 

JACKSONVILLE, FL -- A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect.

Through Friday the rainfall totals may reach 5-10 inches . Isolated amounts may top 15".

Fay now has winds of 60 with gusts to 70 and is 90 miles south-southeast of Jax moving NW at 3 mph. Sustained winds have increased. The pressure is at 994 mb=29.35 inches. It appears as if it will hug the coast for a while. The official track is virtually unchanged from the last update.

Gusty winds of 50 mph have been felt in our area with squally showers. Along with moderate to heavy rain occasionally swinging through some flooding of roads over the next few days. Water may also rise in some of the poor drainage areas. Isolated tornadoes appear to be less likely, but cannot be ruled out within Fay's rainbands through Thursday.

Winds gusting to over 50 will be possible overnight . Winds may gust to over 65 mph Thursday for some spots (mainly near the coast). This is strong enough to cause power outages and bring down limbs and small trees. Winds and rain will be less further north. The conditions from Fay should last through early Friday. Onshore winds will produce tides of 2-4 feet above normal.

I was 'down and out' with a bacterial infection, but when I was back, here's a story about Fay on Fox News...

 

4 Florida Counties Declared Disaster Areas in Fay's Wake

President George W. Bush declared Sunday that four Florida counties hit hardest by Tropical Storm Fay are major disaster areas, making them eligible for federal aid.

The declaration makes funds available for emergency work and repairs to governments in Brevard, Monroe, Okeechobee and St. Lucie counties.

State and federal emergency officials are still assessing the damage from the weeklong storm that caused at least 11 deaths in Florida and one in Georgia. More counties could be added.

The funding has not yet been extended to individual homeowners whose properties were damaged by high winds or flood waters.

"I'm pleased about the declaration and grateful to President Bush," Florida Gov. Charlie Crist said before touring flood damage at the St. Mark's River in north Florida.

Mary Blakeney, spokeswoman for the emergency management office in Okeechobee County, said officials hope to have a decision in coming days about individual home owner assistance.

"Those calls have been coming in ... and, at this point, we have some teams coming in that will be doing a more detailed assessment where they will be going into these homes and looking at what type of damage they've had," Blakeney said.

Fay was downgraded to a tropical depression on Saturday night after making a record fourth landfall in Florida. Its remnants were forecast to dump several inches (centimeters) of rain across Alabama, Mississippi, eastern Louisiana and Tennessee on Sunday and Monday.

Some of those areas have been suffering long-term drought conditions.

In Huntsville, Alabama, National Weather Service senior forecaster Andy Kula said the 5-day rainfall projection through Friday -- 6 to 7 inches (15 to 18 centimeters) south of the Tennessee River and 3 to 4 inches (7.5 to 10 centimeters) north of the river -- would spread out and was not expected to create a flood problem.

"We need something like this to recharge the soil. It probably won't be a total drought-buster," Kula said Sunday.

The rains from Tropical Depression Fay will continue to threaten flooding in the South over the next few days. The center of Fay, currently over southern Mississippi, has stalled, but may edge a little farther west before turning more to the north. Gusty--but not damaging--winds will persist over much of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.

The heaviest rain over the next 3 days will fall from parts of Mississippi and southeast Louisiana to Georgia, eastern Tennessee and parts of the Carolinas Flood watches are widespread across the Deep South.


 

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