Hurricane
Dolly has strengthened further tonight and now is packing
maximum sustained winds of 80 mph; a formidable category one
hurricane.Hurricane Dolly may continue to strengthen
during the early morning hours before landfall. It is
expected to make landfall along the northern Mexico or
southern Texas Gulf Coast on Wednesday during the morning or
midday hours.
As of 2 a.m. CDT, the center of Hurricane Dolly was
located about 85 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.
Dolly is sluggishly moving toward the northwest at just 9
mph. The storm's pressure, measured by the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane, was near 982 mb.
Hurricane warnings have been issued from Rio San Fernando
in Mexico northward to Corpus Christi, Texas. Tropical storm
warnings surround the hurricane warning area, with tropical
storm warnings in effect in Mexico between Le Pesca and Rio
San Fernando (where a hurricane watch is also in effect),
and between Corpus Christi and San Luis Pass in Texas.
The outer rain bands of Hurricane Dolly are now rotating
onshore along the far South Texas coastline. This is just
the beginning and conditions will only continue to
deteriorate overnight as Dolly's center of circulation
approaches.
Nasty squalls of tropical downpours and tropical
storm-force winds will begin to impact South Texas late
tonight and early Wednesday morning. The worst conditions
will be near the Brownsville area, including S. Padre
Island, and in neighboring parts of Mexico.
Waves will grow in height through the morning hours as
Dolly makes landfall; crashing and punishing the shoreline.
The expected storm surge, from Corpus Christi south to
South Padre Island, is forecast to range from 3 to 5 feet.
Because of the very slow forward movement of Dolly, the
main impact from Dolly will certainly be heavy rainfall
which will begin during the overnight hours and last through
Wednesday. Forecast amounts are expected to be in the 6 to
12 inch range in locations south of Corpus Christi through
Brownsville and into northern Mexico. A few spots,
especially in the northern Mexican mountains, could get as
much as 15. Flooding is almost a guarantee for several
locations impacted by Dolly.
If you live in or are visiting a beach area of south
Texas, heed the advice of local officials with regard to
evacuations. Preparations for tropical storm force and
hurricane force winds along with flooding rains should
already be complete.
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
DOLLY IS STRENGTHENING. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 964 MB
WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 92 KNOTS. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE
NWS RADAR AT BROWNSVILLE HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 95 AND 109
KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ALTITUDE...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. IT HAS NOW A RAGGED EYE ON
BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
85 KNOTS...MAKING DOLLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.
RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING ON A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE
ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE
RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING.
