Bertha had the distinction of being the storm with the longest life in the month of July... but it mostly just wallowed around in the middle of the Atlantic, making for some hectic cross-sea travel, and large waves and rip currents on the US Coast.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

 

Tropical Storm Bertha (winds 40 mph), formerly Tropical Depression 2, has formed 190 miles SSW of the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic. The outer fringes of Bertha are affecting the southern Cape Verdes with locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Bertha is forecast to steadily strengthen over the next few days as it takes a west-northwesterly course.

Also in the Atlantic Basin, an area of showers and thunderstorms is moving through the eastern Caribbean with some gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

Meanwhile in the eastern Pacific, Douglas (35 mph), located about 195 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, has weakened to a tropical depression and is forecast to become a remnant low within 24 hours as it heads more westward.

Tropical Storm Boris (45 mph), also in the eastern Pacific and located 1300 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, will continue to weaken and could become a tropical depression by tonight as its movement turns west-southwestward.

 

The computer models all say that this storm doesn't seem like it'll hit the US at this point.

As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, Bertha was located at 18.6 north, 48.9 west, or about 930 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Bertha is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. Maximum-sustained winds had increased to 65 mph with higher gusts. Wind speeds are expected to continue to increase over the next day or two. With Bertha already showing a well-defined ring of deep convection, she will likely strengthening into a hurricane on Monday.

We still believe that Bertha will now stay south of a large ridge of high pressure located across the central Atlantic. The question with her track is: what happens when she moves west of the ridge axis? Generally, tropical systems will be steered by the backside of the ridge more northerly and eventually even northeasterly. When and where does this northerly jog in track occur? The current thinking is this turn does not happen in the short term, at least through midweek.

With plenty of moisture, warm waters and a low-sheared environment immediately ahead of her on her westward track, Bertha is expected to intensify over the next 24 hours. However, by Monday night she will encounter a more sheared environment, which tends to "rip" tropical systems apart and not allow for development.

Looking further into the future, conditions for intensification seem to improve starting midweek for Bertha. This is assuming that she stays on her basic west-northwest track and is not pulled more north by the backside of the ridge. Pulling north would lead to the weakening of Bertha, as she would run into strong wind shear. Since we are thinking that she does not get pulled too far to the north, further intensification may take place after midweek as wind shear decreases, water temperatures warm up and she has plenty of moisture to work with.

 

Bertha becomes the first Atlantic Hurricane of 2008

Bertha strengthened overnight Sunday night and early Monday morning to become the first hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Bertha (75 mph) is located about 845 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. The storm is racing west-northwestward through the central Atlantic at 17 miles per hour. A gradual slowing of Bertha's forward speed and a turn to a more NW track is expected over the next couple of days.

 

 

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Bertha was located at 22.1 north and 53.8 west, or about 975 miles southeast of Bermuda. Bertha is moving northwest at 10 mph and maximum-sustained winds have weakened slightly to 105 mph with higher gusts. The weakening has occurred due to Bertha's encounter with an area of stronger wind shear. However, the hurricane's wind speeds are expected to hold steady or just slightly decrease over the next 12-24 hours with a more gradual weakening over the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward 25 miles from the center, with tropical storm-force winds extending 100 miles from the center of the storm.

Bertha will continue to track on the outer periphery of the Atlantic high which is now centered over the central Atlantic. Strong hurricanes more likely to be guided by upper-level winds. Those upper-level winds are projected to become more southerly ahead of Bertha within the next two to four days. This will cause Bertha to continue to move northwest, then perhaps a more northerly course. If this trend continues, the forecast track will have to be adjusted more to the right, or east, than we now have it. The upper-level winds that will be guiding Bertha are not expected to be very strong. As a result, Bertha should slow down. There is even some chance Bertha could stall at some point, but this is not certain.

 

Bertha, after briefly becoming a major hurricane, weakened yesterday afternoon and evening. However, satellite imagery is showing signs that Bertha is perhaps regaining form; reorganizing and reintensifying.

It's moving toward the northwest at about 10 mph and at 5 a.m. EDT was centered about 800 miles southeast of Bermuda.

Some fluxuation in strength is possible over the next few days as is a further slowing of its forward motion and a turn to a more north-northwest track and finally more northeastward.

The factors in Bertha's weakening yesterday included upper-level wind shear, the ingestion of drier air and a path over somewhat cooler water. However, wind shear has recently abated and Bertha is and will be moving over warmer ocean temperatures.

At this time, Bertha is expected to miss Bermuda may be only a tropical storm when it passes by to the east. 

Category 1 Hurricane Bertha (winds of 85 mph) was centered about 310 miles south southeast of Bermuda, moving northwest at around 7 miles per hour.

Bertha will move very slowly to the north and northeast over the next 3 days, trapped within an upper level ridge of high pressure and experiencing minimal shear. Bertha's overall strength could remain status quo. Bertha is still expected to pass well to the east of Bermuda.

However, Bermuda could still see squally weather by Sunday and will see high surf on the order of 16-22 feet on south and east facing beaches along with dangerous rip currents. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Bermuda.

Increased surf (3 to 5 feet, locally 7 feet) and rip currents will also impact most of the East Coast of the United States this weekend.

As of 11 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Bertha was located near 29.8 north and 62.5 west, or about 220 miles southeast of Bermuda, and is nearly stationary. Maximum-sustained winds of 75 mph barely classify Bertha as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The minimum central pressure was 984 millibars, or 29.06 inches of mercury.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the island of Bermuda.

Bertha's latest weakening has largely come from the hurricane itself. The storm has been nearly stationary over the past 24 hours, allowing upwelling to occur in waters beneath the hurricane. Upwelling brings cooler water to the surface, cutting off the very warm surface waters that hurricanes thrive in. A slow drift to the north over the next day or two will probably allow the storm to maintain hurricane status through the end of the weekend.

As the eye of the storm drifts north, it is expected to pass near Bermuda, about 110 miles to the east; though there can be variations in Bertha's movement. The main impacts on Bermuda will be large swells and rough surf, especially along the eastern coast. Heavy rain along with tropical storm force winds can impact the island through the end of the weekend. The storm is eventually expected to drift farther north and east through the end of next week as an upper-level trough pushes off the East Coast of the US. Conditions across Bermuda should steadily improve Tuesday into Wednesday.

 

Tropical Storm Bertha continues to move to the east of Bermuda, with tropical storm force winds impacting the island this morning. The center of Bertha is located about 90 miles southeast of Bermuda. Maximum winds are near 65 miles per hour. Bertha is moving to the north-northwest near 8 miles per hour, with a gradual turn to the north today and eventually northeast tomorrow. The beaches of Bermuda will continue to be battered by 12 to 18 foot waves, particularly on the south and east facing beaches.

Swells generated by Bertha will continue to impact the United States' East Coast today and tomorrow, bringing an elevated risk of rip currents to much of the East Coast. 4 to 7 foot seas are expected in many spots. The greatest chance of rip currents comes a couple of hours either side of low tide. If you are visiting an beach on the United States East Coast and are not an experienced surf swimmer, do not venture out into the water past your knees, and do not venture into the surf at a beach without lifeguards!

 

Tropical Storm Bertha, now the longest lived July tropical storm on record in the Atlantic, continues to slowly move east and northeast away from Bermuda. It will likely become absorbed by a non-tropical low pressure just east of it, and be swept off the northeast more rapidly in the coming days; impacts to near-by land are pretty much over. 

In the Atlantic basin, Tropical Storm Bertha, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda, was encountering tremendous shear by a non-tropical low pressure to its east. A continued weakening of Bertha is likely as it eventually accelerates off to the east and eventually northeast.

Any higher surf along the U.S. East Coast will subside today, while lingering a bit longer for Bermuda. Bertha will remain a marine hazard only over the next few days as it weakens.

 Tropical Storm Bertha is about to finally meet its finale. Bertha has begun lose its tropical characteristics in the northern Atlantic, and expected to become fully extratropical by this afternoon.

As of 5 am EDT, the center of Bertha was located about 670 miles east-northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, has maximum sustained winds near 70 miles per hour, and is moving northeast near 30 miles per hour.

Bertha's remnants are expected to continue as a strong gale center over the north Atlantic and eventually bring rain and wind to Iceland by tomorrow.

Bertha broke up, and lost its tropical formation.  It remained a healthy storm, and crashed into northern europe, but as a typical north Atlantic storm.

Added 2008

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