This is the 5th year I've been keeping track!  Its amazing how time flies!  I know I'm not anywhere near the tropical Atlantic, but since no Pacific storm has ever hit the mainland of the US, its not really all that fun to watch them over there... although our big storms come in the winter... this January, we had a storm that caused NOAA/NWS to issue a Hurricane Force Storm warning; the first for the Pacific Northwest.  Winds blew 100+ for more than 10 hours in some places along the coast.  It was a cold core storm, though... not the Tropical variety.

Anyway, I find these storms interesting, and this year should be as interesting as the others...

NOAA Predicts a higher than normal season
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, on May 22, 2008, announced that projected climate conditions point to a near normal or above normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this year. The prediction was issued at a news conference called to urge residents in vulnerable areas to be fully prepared for the onset of hurricane season, which begins June 1.

“Living in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every hurricane season. Review or complete emergency plans now - before a storm threatens,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “Planning and preparation is the key to storm survival and recovery.”

The Climate Prediction Center outlook calls for considerable activity with a 65 percent probability of an above normal season and a 25 percent probability of a near normal season. This means there is a 90 percent chance of a near or above normal season.

The climate patterns expected during this year’s hurricane season have in past seasons produced a wide range of activity and have been associated with both near-normal and above-normal seasons. For 2008, the outlook indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms, including 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes for which two reach major status.

“The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity,” Lautenbacher said. “It does not predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land. That is the job of the National Hurricane Center after a storm forms.” 

Bill Read, director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, said, “Our forecasters are ready to track any tropical cyclone, from a depression to a hurricane, which forms in the Atlantic Basin. We urge coastal residents to have a hurricane plan in place before the season begins and NHC will continue to provide the best possible forecast to the public.”

When a storm forms in the tropics – and even before that stage – NOAA forecasters at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center are in continuous monitoring mode – employing a dense network of satellites, land- and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its partners. This array of data supplies the information for complex computer modeling and human expertise that serves the basis for the hurricane center’s track and intensity forecasts that extend out five days in advance.

The science behind the outlook is rooted in the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns as compared to previous seasons with similar conditions.

“The main factors influencing this year’s seasonal outlook are the continuing multi-decadal signal (the combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995), and the anticipated lingering effects of La Niña,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “One of the expected oceanic conditions is a continuation since 1995 of warmer-than-normal temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic.”

“Americans in hurricane-prone states must get serious and be prepared.  Government – even with the federal, tribal, state and local governments working perfectly in sync – is not the entire answer. Everyone is part of the emergency management process," said FEMA Administrator R. David Paulison. "We must continue to develop a culture of preparedness in America in which every American takes personal responsibility for his or her own emergency preparedness.”

NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season outlook will be updated on August 7, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.

Tropical systems acquire a name – the first of which for 2008 will be Arthur – upon reaching tropical storm strength with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Tropical storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph, and become major hurricanes when winds reach 111 mph.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

 

Tropical Storm Summary - Arthur

Hurricane Summary - Bertha

Tropical Storm Summary - Cristobal

 

Hurricane Summary - Dolly

Tropical Storm Summary - Edouard

Tropical Storm Summary - Fay

Major Hurricane Summary - Gustav

 

Hurricane Summary - Hanna

 

Major Hurricane Summary - Ike

 

Tropical Storm Summary - Josephine

Hurricane Summary - Kyle

Tropical Storm Summary - Laura

Tropical Storm Summary - Marco

Tropical Storm Summary - Nana

Hurricane Summary - Omar

Major Hurricane Summary - Palmoa

From The Weather Channel:

Hurricane season 2008, unlike 2006 and 2007, was a shift back to the years of numerous damaging and deadly U.S. and Caribbean storms and hurricanes; so far 883 direct deaths and 99 indirect deaths have been documented.

Sixteen named storms formed, 8 became hurricanes of which 5 became major hurricanes. These numbers are very close to the 1995 to 2008 average of 15, 8 and 4, respectively rounded to the nearest whole number.

Similar to the busy 2004 hurricane season there were numerous tropical cyclone strikes on the U.S. coastline.

It was fortunate for the US that both of the strongest hurricanes of the season (Gustav and Ike, both CAT 4's) struck other land areas and weakened before striking the US as weaker hurricanes, but unfortunately in the process Ike greatly expanded in size.

The 2008 hurricane season was an all time record breaker; 5 of the 6 months of hurricane season had a major hurricane. The old record (2005) was a least one major hurricane in 4 months of hurricane season.

In 2008 Bertha became a major in July, Gustav a major in August, Ike a major in September, Omar a major in October and finally Paloma shattered the Atlantic Basin record when it became a major hurricane in November.

Hurricane Bertha became the longest --lived named storm on record in July in the Atlantic Basin (17 days). Bertha also formed farther east than any other on record so early in the season (east of 25W as a storm and 50W as a hurricane).

However prior to the satellite era few observations were available in this area to "see" any tropical storms; there have probably been others tropical storms like Bertha that are just not documented.

A series of 7 named storms starting with Cristobal and ending with Ike struck the U.S. coastline, this extended series of named storms all striking the U.S. with no non-strikers between is a record for the U.S.

Ike was by far the most costly hurricane for the U.S. in 2008 and will likely go into the record books in the top 5 costliest hurricanes in U.S. history, possibly in the top three.

Although Ike struck near Galveston Texas as only a category 2 hurricane the enormous size of Ike's hurricane winds and its gigantic area of tropical storm winds brought huge waves and very high surge to the coast, both more representative of what would be expected from an average size CAT 4/5 hurricane, except that those extreme affects covered a much larger coastal and inland area than that observed from an average sized hurricane so that far more areas felt impacts from Ike.

Waves, surge and winds ransacked the coast from east-central Louisiana to near Freeport, Texas. Impacts on Galveston, southeast Houston, and the Bolivar Peninsula all the way to Lake Charles were extreme and the resulting wave, surge and wind damage caused oil drilling disruptions and gas refinery disruptions both resulting in an extended period of gas shortages to area as far away as north Georgia.

The combination of surge and additional water rise from battering high waves destroyed homes in west Galveston, flooding homes and businesses in north Galveston, flooding many homes and businesses around Galveston Bay, devastated many homes on the Bolivar Peninsula, and flooding residences, businesses and destroying infrastructure to areas to southeast of Lake Charles. In many wave and surge areas, homes vanished beneath the pounding surf.

Wave heights were estimated to be near 40-50 feet and water rise, based on high water marks, is estimated to be 15-20 feet near the Bolivar Peninsula; portions of southeast Galveston Bay may have seen water briefly and very locally exceed 20 feet.

A large area of coastline reported 10 feet of water rise, and coastal water level stations measured heights as high as 12 feet, heights exceeded 8 feet at the mouth of the Mississippi River. Tide gauges failed or terminated transmission of data prior to measuring maximum values.

Hundreds of thousands of people were left without power in the Greater Houston Galveston area and across areas to the south and east of Houston. Some lost power for many weeks and some still do not have power or any hint of a home left along the coast.

Ike was a most classic example of how damaging a very large hurricane can be despite the fact that its maximum winds at the coast were less than 111 mph.

Sadly, even though hundreds of thousands evacuated, many did not and the result was that an unnecessary number of people died in the raging waves and high water that were forced onshore by Ike. Hundreds were rescued at the last hours before Ike's landfall or after Ike moved inland as many were left stranded by destroyed or impassible roads.

A year with a hurricane Ike comes along only once in 20 years or less and this hurricane alone would have made 2008 a season to remember.

But 6 other storms and hurricanes also struck the U.S. coastline, thus making this one of the most destructive in U.S. history, obviously mostly because the U.S. has built up a huge and continuous population of hurricane vulnerable structures along its coasts.

Added in 2008

< Back to the Weather Page