INVEST 96
An area of low pressure centered near 31 west and 8 north is tracking west-northwest at about 5 degrees of longitude per day.  It is causing plenty of showers and thunderstorms and is looking more organized on satellite loops. Southwesterly winds aloft over this part of the Atlantic are causing some shear, but the southwesterly winds are weaker over an area covering several hundred miles to the west. There is a good chance for this feature to become a tropical depression or storm over the next 24-48 hours.

 

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT T.D. 12 has become Tropical Storm Karen and is located at 10.4 north and 38.0 west, or about 1,565 miles east of the Windward Islands. Karen is moving west-northwest at 16 mph with this speed and direction of movement expected to continue for at least the next 24 hours. Maximum-sustained winds at near 40 mph and the central pressure is estimated to be 1005 mb, or 29.68 inches. Computer forecasts show this system moving west-northwest during the next several days over very warm water and low shear.

So, there is a good chance this system could become a hurricane. Given the size of the cloud mass and the rich moisture surrounding the system, there is a concern this could become a very strong and powerful tropical system over time if shear does not become a problem Thursday or Friday.

It is too early to be sure whether this will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles, but the most recent computer information suggests the system will track north to northeast of the Leeward Islands. But, again this is way too early to know if this is to be trusted.

Not a good chance to hit the US... seems only one storm that formed near where Karen is located
actually hit the US, while one grazed the New England Coast

As of 11:00 PM EDT, Tropical Storm Karen was located at 11.1 north, 41.0 west, or about 1355 miles east of the Windward Islands. Karen is moving west-northwest at 14 mph with this speed and direction of movement expected to continue for at least the next 24 hours. Maximum-sustained winds have remained near 40 mph and the central pressure is estimated to be 1005 mb, or 29.68 inches.

Computer forecasts continue to forecast Karen on a west-northwest course during the next few days over very warm water and low shear. So, there is a chance Karen could become a hurricane. However, an upper level system to the north and west of Karen is forecasted to build southward and this will generate shear over Karen in about 3 days. Before Karen reaches this shear it should have time to intensify. Whether it becomes a hurricane is not so clear now since the system has been slow to wind up during the past 12 hours.

The long term movement of Karen will be toward the northwest and perhaps north northwest. This course would take Karen away from the Leeward Islands and more into the central Atlantic. So, at this point Karen does not appear to be a threat to land.

Tropical Storm Karen has weakened this morning (maximum winds are at 70 mph), while located about 970 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Increasing southwesterly winds overtop this system has created shear, resulting in weakening this morning. This shear should continue, as the system continues moving west-northwest, or perhaps more northwest, over the next few days. This movement would bring Karen a few hundred miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Sunday into Monday.

Tropical Storm Karen in the central Atlantic continues to undergo strong southwesterly shearing winds, which continues to weaken the system. Maximum winds near the center of Karen have decreased to 45 mph, with most of the thunderstorms located northeast of the center of circulation.

These shearing winds are forecast to continue over the next few days, keeping Karen weak, while moving to the west and northwest. The system remains no threat to land, and should still pass north of the Lesser Antilles Sunday early next week.

 

Strong southwesterly winds aloft have taken their toll upon what was Karen, which no longer is producing enough thunderstorm activity to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The remnant circulation is located near 18 north, 58 west, about 250 miles east of the Leeward islands. Spotty showers and thunderstorms are occurring around the low, but are still being ripped apart by strong westerly winds aloft.

The remains of Karen will track to the northwest over the next couple of days and will cause a few squalls over the Leeward islands. The strong winds aloft will abate somewhat starting Monday, and it is possible that Karen could regenerate later next week.

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