Florence stayed out at sea, swinging just west of Bermuda, causing little damage.  It did cause pretty intense waves all along the East Coast for a few days, though...

By early Sunday, it could be a category two hurricane--some models suggest a category three--with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph about 850 miles southeast of the Carolina coast... and moving toward the northwest.

No messing around here. This is going to be a big hurricane by the end of the week. Early today, Tropical Depression 6 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Florence. This storm has plenty of potential to do mean things, which gives the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center every reason to watch it closely in the days ahead. Soon it will leave a somewhat disruptive wind field and enter an environment much more favorable for intensification. Most of the meteorological world is in agreement that by Sunday the storm will be a Category 3 hurricane centered several hundred miles east of Florida.

A gradual turn by Florence toward the north is expected over the weekend, so the hurricane should miss the U. S. but threaten Bermuda.
 

The current forecast track still eventually turns Florence in a more northerly direction this weekend, which would keep the eastern United States out of the direct path, but would threaten Bermuda at the same time. Although a direct east coast hit is not forecast at this time, if Florence is able to strengthen, high surf, rip currents, water rises and beach erosion could begin to impact parts of the eastern United States. This forecast will be refined as Florence gets closer, but for now, everyone along the Eastern United States and Bermuda should simply monitor the latest forecast.
 

Possible watches and warnings may be posted for Bermuda later today. The current forecast track has remained consistent, calling for Florence to continue west-northwest for a few days, then turning in a more northerly direction this weekend, which would bring Bermuda in a direct path. While the eastern United States would be spared a direct hit on this track, high surf and rip currents could still affect some areas. This forecast will continue to be refined as Florence gets closer, but for now, everyone along the Eastern United States and Bermuda should simply monitor the latest forecast.

Although sustained winds with Hurricane Florence have dropped to 80 mph, the storm will continue to lash Bermuda with heavy rain, strong winds, and high surf. The center of the hurricane will pass just west of the islands, and winds have been gusting over 50 mph at Bermuda's airport consistently through the overnight hours.

The worst conditions will be felt through the early afternoon hours on Monday, with improving conditions by evening. For the U.S., the biggest impact will be increased surf along the East Coast through at least Wednesday. The most hard-hit areas will be the Outer Banks of North Carolina through Cape Cod. Seas in excess of 12 feet, dangerous rip currents, and areas of beach erosion are all possible. Once the hurricane moves north of Bermuda, it will encounter increasing shear and cooler waters and a slow demise is expected over the next 48 hours.

As Florence moves away from Bermuda Monday night into Tuesday, the next in the line of fire will be southeastern Newfoundland. Since Florence is such a large storm, it will have at least some impact across all of Atlantic Canada. For Nova Scotia, the impact will be mainly limited to areas along the coast that will have much rougher-than-normal surf, along with rip currents. The greatest impacts by far, though, will be felt across Newfoundland Wednesday. Florence is expected to pass near or just south of the southeastern tip of Newfoundland. This will cause a minor storm surge along the coast of a few feet and some coastal flooding. Winds will gust past 60 mph, and some hurricane-force gusts will still be possible if the center of Florence actually reaches Newfoundland. Very heavy rain will also be a problem but, since the storm will be moving at a fairly steady clip by that point, at least heavy rain should not be too prolonged.

Florence thrashed Bermuda Monday as it plowed north-northeastward through the western Atlantic. Florence is a strong Category 1 hurricane and will likely still be a hurricane into Tuesday. There should be some weakening later Tuesday and Tuesday night as, at that point, Florence will be moving out of warm Gulf Stream waters and into much cooler water. This is good news for Newfoundland, as that is where the storm will be aiming toward Tuesday night into Wednesday.

If Florence were to continue on its current north-northeastward track, it would plow into western Newfoundland or perhaps even eastern Nova Scotia. Upper-atmospheric steering winds are generally westerly along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States and over Atlantic Canada. This is expected to cause Florence to bend more to the northeast. Thus, the storm will more likely aim for the southeastern tip of Newfoundland. It could even turn enough to the northeast to miss a direct strike on Newfoundland.

The hardest-hit area will be the Outer Banks of North Carolina where the surf is expected to build to 12 to 18 feet within the next 12 hours.