Thankfully so, because it raked across Florida, then spent the early part of the Labor Day holiday raining down on the East Coast... some parts needed the rain, but maybe not quite so much so quickly, I guess.
 

For now, it appears the widespread squally weather will remain south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, but a few showers and thunderstorms on the outer fringes cannot be ruled out. While a westward movement still continues, the system is forecast to make a turn more toward the west-northwest within the next three days, approaching Jamaica. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more supportive for continued development, and a track threatening the Gulf of Mexico by early next week is possible. For now, interests along the Gulf coast states should simply monitor and be aware of the system.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the southern coast of Haiti and for the island of Jamaica. A hurricane watch has also been issued for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Ernesto is moving west-northwest through the central Caribbean, and this motion is expected to continue into the weekend.

An upper low out ahead of the storm will cause some west-southwesterly shear along the storms path over the next 1 to 2 days, which would prevent any rapid strengthening. Ernesto's strongest winds are on the northern side of its circulation and this should continue for the next few days as well. Given this, the current forecast calls for the bulk of the squally weather to remain south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but a few outer bands could generate some heavier downpours and gusty conditions even in these areas starting today. Heavy squalls and gusty winds would then begin to impact parts of Haiti and Jamaica by Sunday and linger into Monday.

The bothersome shear is forecast to weaken as the tropical storm moves beyond Jamaica and across the northwest Caribbean Monday and very early Tuesday, most likely allowing Ernesto to become the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season.

Current forecasts indicate that Ernesto will be a Gulf of Mexico hurricane by Tuesday. For now, interests along the Gulf Coast states should simply monitor and be aware of the system. Stay tuned to The Weather Channel's Hurricane Central for the latest updates.

Hurricane warnings have been issued for southern coast of Haiti. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch continues in effect for Jamaica and a hurricane watch is in effect for eastern Cuba and Cayman Islands.

Environmental conditions continue to become more favorable for continued development. An upper low to the west of Ernesto is moving west, decreasing the shear to the west of the storm. This decrease in shear this morning has allowed storm to intensify, as it continues to move west-northwest. Haiti and Dominican Republic will experience very heavy squalls, gusty winds, flash flooding and increasing rough seas today, with these conditions also affecting Jamaica and southeast Cuba by tonight.

Latest forecast information indicates that a trough building across the central United States will be a bit stronger and create steering wind currents that may pull Ernesto on a more northerly track. Due to this, areas along the eastern Gulf of Mexico, particularly Florida, should be on the alert. Ernesto may begin to influence the Florida Keys by early Tuesday, and perhaps parts of the Gulf Coast or Florida by Midweek.

Ernesto has been moving just off the Haiti coast and interaction with the mountainous terrain of Haiti is believed to have weakened the system. Ernesto will still have interaction with the Haitian coast through tonight, which could weaken the tropical storm even more. Tomorrow Ernesto is forecast to move toward Cuba and could have a small window of opportunity to strengthen before making landfall in the early afternoon. Ernesto is forecast to remain over Cuba for about 24 hours before emerging into the Florida Straits Tuesday afternoon.

Ernesto is trying to get better organized this morning as it nears the coast of eastern Cuba. Heavy rainfall on the magnitude of 6 to 12 inches, possibly more, will be the main threat for Cuba. Ernesto is forecast to remain over Cuba for about 24 hours before emerging into the Florida Straits later tonight or early Tuesday. Hurricane watches have been posted across South Florida and the Florida Keys.

Tropical Storm Ernesto (now 45mph) is moving northwest toward South Florida this morning. The center of the storm has remerged over water after crossing Cuba for almost 20 hours.

The storm will likely regain some additional strength today as a result. Fortunately, it remained over land long enough to most likely prevent Ernesto from rapidly intensifying. Heavy rainfall on the order of 4 to 8 inches is the main threat as it bears down on the U.S.

 

Hurricane watches are in effect for much of South Florida and the Northwest Bahamas. In addition, tropical storm warnings are posted for many of the same areas.

This afternoon, via radar and satellite presentation, Ernest has shown improving organization but it probably will still have trouble recapturing its former hurricane status. Heavy, flooding rainfall on the order of 5 to 10 inches will be the main threat from Ernesto as it slowly tracks over south Florida and the Keys this afternoon and during the overnight hours. As is the case with any landfalling tropical cyclone, Ernesto may also spawn a few tornadoes.

Hurricane watches are in effect for much of south Florida and the northwest Bahamas. In addition, tropical storm warnings are posted for many of the same areas.

After moving up through central Florida, Ernesto may emerge once again over the open waters of the Atlantic on Thursday and could strengthen some. A hurricane watch has been issued for coastal areas of Georgia up to Cape Fear, N.C., but chances for Ernesto becoming a hurricane again is a long shot. Heavy rain may produce flooding across parts of the Middle Atlantic and Northeast as remnants of Ernesto work their way northward.

Rain, not wind, will be the most problematic product from Ernesto although some squalls from Ernesto may produce an occasional tropical storm-force gust. Locally heavy rain, on the order of 3 to 6 inches, can be expected and some localized flooding is possible as Ernesto pushes northward through the Florida Peninsula today. An isolated tornado is not out of the question either especially along the Atlantic Coast of Florida.

Ernesto will remain a depression as it moves up through central Florida today towards the general direction of Orlando. It will emerge over the waters of the Atlantic during the overnight hours and could strengthen some. All hurricane watches have been dropped however tropical storm warnings remain posted from the northern half of the east coast of Florida northward to Cape Fear, North Carolina.
 

It is forecast to make another landfall just north of Charleston, South Carolina by this evening. In addition to the flooding rains, Ernesto will kick up the waves along the coasts of South and North Carolina; rising between 15 to 25 feet. Some beach erosion is possible all the way to southeast Virginia by tonight.  Tropical storm warnings are posted Cocoa Beach, Florida northward to Cape Lookout, North Carolina.
 

Heavy rainfall and flooding will be a big concern as well. Already, a stationary front produced anywhere from 2 to over 7 inches of rain across eastern North Carolina to Virginia. Flash flood watches and even some warnings have been posted across the Carolinas up into the Mid-Atlantic today into tonight.

In addition to the flooding rains, Ernesto will kick up the waves along the coasts of South and North Carolina; rising between 15 to 25 feet. Some beach erosion is possible all the way to southeast Virginia by tonight.

Hurricane watches have now been posted along the South and North Carolina coast from South Santee River, S.C. to Cape Lookout, N.C. Tropical storm warnings are posted from the Savannah River in Georgia northward to Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina. This does include Pamlico Sound.

As of 5am, Ernesto remains a tropical storm with maximum winds of 60 mph and tropical storm warnings remain in effect for the North Carolina coastal areas. With the system now over land, weakening will continue today. Heavy rain bands will continue to move across eastern North Carolina this morning, expanding through much of Virginia, advancing into the Middle Atlantic tonight and Saturday.

Rainfall amounts on the order of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts, may result in flash flooding and even possible river flooding as we head into the weekend. In addition to the rain, gusty winds will develop as Ernesto interacts with an area of high pressure over southern Canada. Gale warnings have been posted for the Virginia coast, northward into southern New England. Conditions will improve across the Carolinas into the weekend, with rainy conditions moving into the New England area by the latter part of the weekend.
 

Ernesto is moving through eastern Virginia. Morning rainfall rates in the Tidewater region have been as high as 1 to 2 inches per hour and northeast winds at Langley gusted as high as 62 mph. With the system now over land, weakening will continue today but the rainfall will remain. Moderate to heavy rain extends from southeast Virginia to the southern half Pennsylvania and central New Jersey and will continue its march northward through the Middle Atlantic and New York tonight and Saturday. Rainfall amounts on the order of 3 to 8 inches with isolated higher amounts (of near 12 inches) will result in flash flooding and river flooding as we head into the weekend. Flood watches are in effect for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England.