Tropical Depression 16 formed over the northwestern Bahamas east of Miami Tuesday morning and quickly strengthened to Tropical Storm Ophelia.

This is the 15th tropical storm of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season and is the earliest on record that 15 tropical storms/hurricanes have formed. Ophelia has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving north-northwest at 8 mph. The storm was expected to strengthen slowly and continue drifting toward the NNW over the next couple of days.

While it festers in the warm waters off of Florida, Ophelia is expected to gradually strengthen under minimal shear over the next few days. Without any definitive steering currents aloft, the forecast calls for Ophelia to drift ever-so-slowly northeastward off the coast of northeast Florida and Georgia. Tropical storm warnings remain posted from Cocoa Beach to Flagler Beach, and a tropical storm watch is in effect from Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach. Heavy surf, rip currents and squally weather will continue to lash the coasts of northeast and east-central Florida and southeast Georgia into the weekend.

Once strengthening begins again, Ophelia could strengthen to a category 2 storm, or even higher, this weekend. There will be a gradual turn to the northeast in the next 24 hours as well.

The main impact for Florida from this system over the next 24 hours will be heavy rain, mainly along the central and northern east coast of Florida. Rough surf and rip currents will continue along the east coast of Florida, especially north of Vero Beach, causing beach erosion and tidal flooding. There is also potential for rough surf and rip currents along the East coast of the U.S. as far northward as the mid-Atlantic states.

The forecast movement of Ophelia is a very complex issue. Ophelia will move north, then northeast, off the Florida coast Friday into the weekend as a weak upper level trough of low pressure to the north of the storm influences it. This trough will then lift out to the northeast late in the weekend or early next week, leaving Ophelia behind. A large upper level high pressure area will move into the mid-Atlantic States behind the trough, and should send Ophelia tracking back toward the coast, probably after making a loop out over the water. The location of the center of the high will influence where a potential landfall would be; the further east that the high tracks early next week, the higher up on the Southeast coast a landfall would occur.

The bottom line is that the future movement of Ophelia will be slow, and all interests along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor the progress of Ophelia into next week.

Ophelia, lurking off the Carolina coast, has weakened to a tropical storm and continues to move very slowly. The storm has wrapped a considerable amount of dry air into its circulation and that's been a significant contributing factor in its weakening. There's still a good possibility, however, that Ophelia will regain minimal hurricane status within the next 24 hours as it creeps over somewhat warmer Gulf Stream waters.

Expectations are for Ophelia to eventually turn from its current northwesterly drift to a more northerly track, perhaps making a run at far eastern North Carolina, the Outer Banks in particular, by Wednesday. Heavy, potentially flooding rain, may be the primary impact from the storm as it edges ever closer to land. In the meantime, heavy surf and rip currents will remain significant threats all along the Southeast coast today.

Outer rainbands from Ophelia are currently swirling toward the southern North Carolina coast. The heaviest bands, however, lurk about 30 to 40 miles off the South Carolina coast.
 

As of 11:00 a.m. Tuesday, Ophelia remained a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Ophelia was centered near 32.3 north and 78.0 west, or about 125 miles east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina and 135 miles south of Wilmington, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure was 989 millibars or 29.20 inches. Ophelia is now moving north-northwest at 3 mph, and will slowly pick up forward speed over the next 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the storm's center, with the strongest winds about 50 or 60 miles from the center. This means the strongest winds could reach the storm well ahead of the actual center. There is already a strong band of tropical storm force winds and heavy rain near the coast of northern South Carolina and southern North Carolina.

Satellite images continue to show large breaks in the clouds around Ophelia, suggesting areas of drier sinking air which has inhibited strengthening. However, a band of thunderstorms will try to wrap around the center this afternoon and evening. It may turn out that Ophelia continues to have a large, relative, thunderstorm-free center for the next 24 hours. Ophelia will move over the Gulf Stream current Wednesday and Wednesday night. This current has warmer water. If Ophelia can wrap up and shake out the drier air with this warmer water it may strengthen again, perhaps back to hurricane strength.
 

The hurricane continues to churn slowly toward the NNE with its eyewall battering extreme southeastern North Carolina. Both Southport and Wilmington have been hammered by wind gusts as high as 55 mph. The agonizingly slow motion of Ophelia will result in the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding througout eastern North Carolina. Doppler radar estimates suggest as much as 6 to 8 inches of rain have fallen already just south of Wilmington. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches in localized areas are not out of the question.

The slow ENE movement of Ophelia will result in heavy rainfall and flooding slowly spreading northeastward along the Outer Banks today. Doppler radar estimates suggest rainfall totals around 12-15 inches just south of Wilmington, N. C.

Strong, gusty winds continue over the Outer Banks. Cape Hatteras recently experienced a gust to 83 mph. An unofficial gust of 95 mph was reported at Hatteras Village. More moderate damage and power outages should be expected. The storm surge was as high as 5 to 7 feet along the southern half of the Outer Banks and over the interior sounds.
 

Ophelia was downgraded to a tropical storm at 8 p.m. EDT on Thursday evening. This is the 5th time during the history of Ophelia that it has been a tropical storm. As of 8 a.m. EDT, the center of Ophelia was located about 65 miles to the east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. The heaviest rain and strongest winds associated with this system remain well offshore. However, parts of extreme eastern North Carolina will still see some showers and gusty winds at times.

Ophelia has begun a motion towards the north and should eventually turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed expected. As it heads off towards the northeast, Ophelia could come close enough to New England to bring some gusty winds to parts of coastal New England (Cape Cod) and the islands. A tropical storm watch is in effect from Point Judith, RI eastward and northward to Cape Cod and Plymouth, MA (including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket Island). The Canadian Maritimes are also tracking Ophelia and have issued a tropical storm watch for southwest Nova Scotia from Yarmouth to Lunenberg.

Ophelia (for never making landfall) has affected much of the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Winds gusted as high as 92 mph in Cape Lookout, NC on Wednesday evening, while Cape Hatteras, NC recorded wind gusts as high as 83 mph on Thursday. Rainfall amounts exceeded 10" in some parts of southeastern North Carolina.